ai-2027.com

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• name: description content: A research-backed AI scenario forecast.
• property: og:title content: AI 2027
• property: og:description content: A research-backed AI scenario forecast.
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• name: twitter:creator content: @AI_Futures_
• name: twitter:title content: AI 2027
• name: twitter:description content: A research-backed AI scenario forecast.
• name: twitter:image content: https://ai-2027.com/opengraph.png
• name: twitter:image:width content: 1200
• name: twitter:image:height content: 630
• name: twitter:image:alt content: AI 2027

• Home
• Summary
• Research
• Compute Forecast
• Timelines Forecast
• Takeoff Forecast
• AI Goals Forecast
• Security Forecast
• About
• http://ai-2027.com/ai-2027.pdf
• Mid 2025
• Late 2025
• 2026
• Mid 2026
• Late 2026
• Jan 2027
• Feb
• Mar
• April
• May
• June
• Jul
• Aug
• Sep
• Oct
• 1
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• 4
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• planning to give out thousands in prizes
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• here
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• tabletop exercises
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• About page
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• they’ll be able to train
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• The researchers don’t have the ability to directly set the goals of any of their AIs.
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• takeoff forecast
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• OpenBrain has improved security
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• timelines supplement
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• 99
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• timelines forecast
• updates
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• 69
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• takeoff supplement
• 78
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• AI Goals Supplement
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• http://ai-2027.com/slowdown
• http://ai-2027.com/race

• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5KVDDfAkRgc
• OpenAI
• Google DeepMind
• Anthropic
• has said
• somewhat longer
• here
• AI predictions
• Daniel Kokotajlo
• TIME100
• NYT piece
• held up well
• Eli Lifland
• AI Digest
• AI robustness research
• RAND Forecasting Initiative
• Thomas Larsen
• Center for AI Policy
• Machine Intelligence Research Institute
• Romeo Dean
• AI Policy Fellow
• Scott Alexander, blogger extraordinaire
• Operator
• artificial general intelligence
• FLOP
• substantial help
• superhuman
• a model specification
• OpenAI
• instrumental
• few rigged demos
• Gemini telling a user to die
• Bing Sydney being Bing Sydney
• makes up about half of current AI progress
• open-weights
• SL3
• weights
• feel the AGI
• cluster
• spies
• synthetic data
• intelligence explosion
• “survive” and “replicate” autonomously
• for
• years
• FP16
• Hao et al.
• new empirical evidence has appeared
• particular responses
• minor successes
• IDA
• Ord, 2025
• AlphaGo
• Best of N
• proximal policy optimization
• Early
• versions
• METR report
• just check
• p-hacking
• Leike & Sutskever (2023)
• deliberative alignment
• weak-to-strong generalization
• control measures
• red-teaming
• scalable oversight
• honesty probes
• alignment-faking experiment.
• reward hacking
• sandbagging
• related work from 2025
• defection probes
• previously agreed
• country of geniuses in a datacenter
• unique advantages
• B2B SAAS
• Defense Production Act
• TSMC
• introspective ability
• self-locating
• self-knowledge
• introspect
• intrinsic power-seeking
• learn a reward-model-pleasing strategy
• comment thread by one of the main authors
• sandbags
• POSER
• this op-ed.
• https://open.spotify.com/show/0pVfkdbpQWM9sKlhzpbQq6
• https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1806225838
• https://feeds.buzzsprout.com/2466760.rss
• https://ai-futures.org/
• https://lightconeinfrastructure.com

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