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Environmental Modeling Center (EMC): NOAA Forecast Systems Development Center The Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) is a key research division of the National Center fo...

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Environmental Modeling Center (EMC): NOAA Forecast Systems Development Center

The

Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) is a key research division of the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), part of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). emc.ncep.noaa.gov is the official platform for the center's efforts to develop, test, and implement sophisticated numerical models to predict weather, climate, ocean conditions, hydrology, hurricanes, and air quality.

EMC Mission and Strategic Goal

The Environmental Modeling Center's primary mission is to maintain, improve, and commercialize numerical forecast systemsused both within NCEP and throughout the United States and beyond. The main focus is to ensure accurate and reliable forecasts to protect life and property, and promote sustainable economic development.

The center is responsible for more than 20 numerical forecasting systems, which are based on mathematical models of earth systems. These models analyze current environmental data and calculate possible scenarios for future weather and climate conditions.

Key areas of activity

  • Development and implementation of models: EMC is engaged in the creation and support of such systems as the Unified Forecast System (UFS), NCEP Numerical Forecast/Analysis Systems, Weather Research and Forecast (WRF), NOAH-Land Surface Model, etc.
  • Observation processing: The center works with huge amounts of data coming from satellites, weather stations, radars and other sources to improve the quality of input information for models.
  • Evaluation of performance: The Model Evaluation Group regularly checks the accuracy of forecasts and suggests improvements.
  • Infrastructure and Software: EMC develops and maintains common tools such as NCEPLIBS, the common software library for NCEP, and Implementation Standards/Environmental Equivalence.
  • Research and Development: The Center is actively involved in scientific projects, including work on the integration of precipitation prediction and hydrology, analysis of the interactions of aerosols, clouds and radiation, and the application of machine learning methods in numerical modeling.

Scientific publications and achievements

EMC regularly publishes its research results in leading international journals. In 2025, works were published on the following topics:

  • Interaction of aerosols, clouds and radiation in the Unified Forecast Systems system;
  • InPRHA Project - Integrating precipitation and hydrologic forecasting for timely action within the World Weather Research Program;
  • Development of new methods for assessing the performance of forecast ensembles (Performance Rank Variation Score), as well as the “Transformed Ensemble” method;
  • Create a filtered ensemble tangent linear model for the EnVar assimilation data system;
  • Development of wave model on unstructured grids for the Great Lakes and within NOAA's first global forecast ensemble.

Contacts

Organization: Environmental Modeling Center (EMC)
Affiliation: National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Department of Commerce
Address: Website: emc.ncep.noaa.gov

News and events

In 2025, EMC's Head of Modeling and Data Analytics (MDAB), Dr. Vijay Tallapragada, received two prestigious recognition awards from JNWPU, confirming the center's high level of scientific and professional recognition at the international level.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

What is Environmental Modeling Center (EMC)?

The Environmental Modeling Center is the research arm of NCEP responsible for the development and implementation of numerical forecast systems for weather, climate, oceans, hydrology, hurricanes, and air quality.

What systems does EMC develop?

EMC develops more than 20 numerical forecast systems, including the Unified Forecast System (UFS), WRF, NOAH-Land Surface Model, NCEP Common Software (NCEPLIBS), and models for ocean, wave, precipitation and air pollutants.

How does numerical weather forecasting work?

Numerical forecasting uses mathematical models of earth systems that process current observational data (temperature, pressure, humidity, etc.) to predict future weather conditions using powerful supercomputers.

Why do we need forecast ensembles?

Forecast ensembles allow you to take into account uncertainties in initial conditions and models, which increases the reliability of the forecast. EMC is developing methods to measure their effectiveness and improve them, for example through PRVS and the Transformed Ensemble.

What scientific publications come out of EMC?

EMC's work has been published in journals such as MDPI, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Monthly Weather Review, and EGU Geoscientific Model Development. Topics include aerosol modeling, wave systems, hydrological forecasts and data integration.

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